If social distancing, wearing masks, and shelter in place work, then nothing will happen. No infections, no deaths. Or, at least, many fewer infections and deaths than we would have had had we not practiced social distancing, shelter in place. To be infected, you need to be exposed to someone who is infected. No exposure, no infection.
Dr. Emily Landon explains it beautifully in this 2 minute YouTube clip.
I have not data, but I’m betting most of the cases come from clusters (e.g., funerals, soccer games) or the economically disadvantaged who are forced to live, work and travel in close quarters (e.g., meat processing employees).
Please continue to practice safe living. We all will benefit.